A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
